I considered not writing up a piece about the Oscars this year. After all, what can I tell you that everyone else isn’t already telling you? This is one of the seemingly easiest races to call in recent memory. It’s not likely there will be too many surprises come Oscar night, but I thought I would give you all my picks anyways. Now I have to be honest with you. This is the first year in at least ten years that I have not seen every nominated film and performance prior to Oscar night. I’ve seen everything except THE BLIND SIDE, THE LOVELY BONES and THE LAST STATION. I fully intend to see those films at some point, but none have been a high priority for me. That said, I think I can still make some educated guesses in the key categories. Even so, we may as well start with something easy.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Remember when Nicholas Cage won his Best Actor Oscar for “Leaving Las Vegas” and “Con Air” was released two months later? Well let me walk you through another scenario. In a year or so, a movie will come out. It might be “Soul Plan 2: Come Crunk the Jiggy Skies” or maybe it will be a Marlon Wayans/Katt Williams vehicle about funny car thieves. Whatever that movie is, MO’NIQUE has probably already signed on to it (under her old price) and will be billed as “Academy Award Winner MO’NIQUE.” As much as it pains me to say it, MO’NIQUE is this year’s absolute only sure thing. And good for her. I’m not a big fan of her past work, but she did give an incredible performance in PRECIOUS. If she had stronger competition in this category I would probably vote for someone else, but even with some fine performances, this isn’t a very competitive category.
I really wish actors like Julianne Moore and Samantha Morton had been nominated for their excellent performances though, just to make this a more interesting race. VERA FARMIGA gave her best performance to date in UP IN THE AIR, and ANNA KENDRICK is making good on the promise she showed in her youth in films like “Camp” and “Rocket Science.” She’s a very fine actress. But she’s young. She’ll have other chances.
PENELOPE CRUZ absolutely deserved a nomination this year… for Pedro Almodovar’s “Broken Embraces.” NINE was a terrible film and CRUZ was passable at best. I felt that MAGGIE GYLLENHAAL was somewhat miscast in CRAZY HEART, but she’s one of my favorite actresses and her performance was still quite good. I’m happy she got her first nomination, I just wish it had been seven years ago for “Secretary.” At least this won’t be her last nomination. She’ll be back, probably for a better performance.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
CHRISTOPH WALTZ has won almost every award he’s been up for since winning Best Actor at Cannes last June, so people are saying that he’s a shoo in to win this award. I hope they’re right. I think his chances are excellent and he is most deserving, giving a performance that will be remembered for decades, and might even outlast memories of the film itself. From now on, whenever anyone makes lists of film’s most iconic villains, WALTZ’ Col. Hans Landa is going to be very near the top. I still think the one actor that could upset him is CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER. I still haven’t seen THE LAST STATION, and I think a lot of others haven’t either, but PLUMMER does have a nostalgia quality to him, and not only has he never won before, he’s never even been nominated. People have written him off because his film has so little buzz, but he could get this as a “body of work” award. Remember the year James Coburn won for a film that nobody saw? Just saying.
I still think the award belongs to WALTZ, but if there were anyone in this category as worthy of the award as he, it would be WOODY HARRELSON. This year HARRELSON reminded everyone just how much they liked him with a crazy fun performance in “Zombieland.” But his performance in THE MESSENGER has stuck with me, even months after seeing the film. I’m so glad the Academy remembered his work in this extraordinary film, which deserved nominations for Best Picture and Best Actor (Ben Foster) as well.
MATT DAMON also deserved a Best Actor nomination (for “The Informant”), but that category was a little full so he was given the consolation prize of a nomination for INVICTUS. DAMON was quite excellent in INVICTUS. That accent probably didn’t come easy and it’s a very subtle and inspiring portrayal. I think I liked INVICTUS more than a lot of people, but I still think DAMON was just given this for being gypped for “The Informant,” which I feel he deserved to win for.
Finally, STANLEY TUCCI for THE LOVELY BONES. I haven’t seen it. I’m sure TUCCI is excellent. He usually is. Even in thankless roles like in “The Devil Wears Prada” and “Julie & Julia.” He deserves recognition but TUCCI’s performance was the only good thing most people had to say about THE LOVELY BONES so I think that this won’t be his year. What am I saying? I KNOW it won’t be his year.
BEST ACTRESS
I know all the talk is about rewarding SANDRA BULLOCK for her comeback and financially successful year. I’m sure she’ll get many votes for that. But I don’t know. I think there are a lot of people who are going to see her name on the ballot next to MERYL STREEP’s and they won’t be able to bring themselves to vote for the football weepie. This is the only category I feel that is still pretty up in the air, and I think STREEP might just edge out BULLOCK. I haven’t seen THE BLIND SIDE, and I’m sure BULLOCK is quite good in it, but JULIE & JULIA was an incredibly mediocre film made nearly great solely by STREEP’s performance. I think STREEP’s portrayal of Julia Child will be remembered for years to come, while THE BLIND SIDE will be all but forgotten by the time another good sports movie comes out.
If I had to pick my favorite performance in the category, I’d go with CAREY MULLIGAN for AN EDUCATION. This young star came out of nowhere, and you couldn’t take your eyes off her in this film, even while she was surrounded by excellent, veteran actors equally deserving of praise, such as Alfred Molina and Peter Sarsgaard. MULLIGAN scored several critic’s award wins and a BAFTA for her performance, but I think an American is going to win in this category, and the Academy will simply wait for MULLIGAN to shine again in the future film. I’m sure she will.
The wonderful GABOUREY SIDIBE gave the best performance in PRECIOUS and deserves an award more than MO’NIQUE, but being against bigger names is going to hurt her chances. He reward is getting nominated for her very first film, which is an honor she richly deserves. Finally HELEN MIRREN was nominated just to prove what a weak year this was for actresses. I’m sure she’s excellent, per usual, in THE LAST STATION, but she’s only here for filler.
BEST ACTOR
All five actors in this category gave great performances and deserve their nominations, but it’s a shame that there were so many great actors this year who were overlooked, such as Matt Damon for “The Informant,” Michael Stuhlbarg for “A Serious Man,” and Sharlto Copley for “District 9,” just to name a few. However, between the five nominees, JEFF BRIDGES should have no trouble walking away with the Oscar, and it’s about time. I liked CRAZY HEART a lot, but the film was ultimately enjoyable but forgettable. BRIDGES gave a great, committed performance in a good movie, and while this might not be the role he is forever remembered for, it is the film that will get him his long overdue Oscar. This may be a “body of work” award, but it’s one that is very well deserved.
I would also love for JEREMY RENNER to secure his new A List status by getting a surprise award, but I think his film will be recognized in other categories. COLIN FIRTH was the glue that held A SINGLE MAN together, and he certainly gave the best performance of his career, but he will have to settle for the BAFTA he won last week. MORGAN FREEMAN successfully avoided the usual standard biopic motions playing Nelson Mandela in INVICTUS, but it won’t be enough to win the award for a film audiences didn’t connect with. And GEORGE CLOONEY solidified his role as classy leading man in UP IN THE AIR, but the film has lost so much of its initial buzz that this once sure thing just now blends in with CLOONEY’s many other great but expected performances.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
This was one of the best years for animation in recent memory. Films like UP, CORALINE, FANTASTIC MR. FOX, and THE PRINCESS AND THE FROG were so good that they could have been nominated for Best Picture, and one of them, UP, actually was. This category is usually reserved for the year’s Pixar movie and just the two other highest grossing animated films. But it’s nice that the Academy is treating this category seriously, even going so far as nominating a relatively unknown film, THE SECRET OF KELLS over bland tripe like “Monsters vs. Aliens” and “Ice Age 3: Dawn of the Dinosaurs.”
I would love for any of these films to win, but I think that UP will prove unstoppable. Not many voters will pick this as Best Picture so they’ll give it the prize here. Possible spoilers could include FANTASTIC MR. FOX, which has a very devoted following, and THE PRINCESS AND THE FROG, which many celebrate for bringing hand drawn animation back to Disney, but you shouldn’t bet against Pixar.
BEST DIRECTOR
This year’s new ten nominee Best Picture category was designed to honor a few films that wouldn’t ordinarily be recognized. So what are the real Best Picture nominees? Well the easiest way to pretend there are only five great nominees is to look to the Best Director category to pick the supposed cream of the crop. JASON REITMAN is a favorite to win Best Adapted Screenplay and with just three films under his belt he has shown that he is truly skilled at making modern, funny films that also have a soul. He’s going to have a long career making them and I look forward to seeing them.
QUENTIN TARATINO and LEE DANIELS share special honors as two of directors who got some of the best performances out of their actors this year. But of course the real race is between former spouses KATRYN BIGELOW and JAMES CAMERON. In BIGELOW’s favor: she directed one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year and would be the first female director to win the award. But of course CAMERON directed the biggest financial hit of all time and had a hand in inventing new technology to make his film look unlike anything that had been seen before. While there is strong support for both directors, I’m sure it will go to BIGELOW, and rightfully so. She did win the Director’s Guild Award after all. If CAMERON won at this point, it would make history in a whole other way.
BEST PICTURE
So, as I’ve previously alluded to, this is the year the Academy, in all their infinite wisdom, have expanded the category to ten nominees. I have mixed feelings about this. On one hand it gives the chance to some smaller films that would never have been nominated otherwise, such as A SERIOUS MAN and AN EDUCATION. If this practice had existed last year, great films like THE WRESTLER would have been honored alongside crap like “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.”
On the other hand, this opens the doors for even more successful, larger films, that don’t need a boost, like THE BLIND SIDE. I’ll keep the BLIND SIDE rage to a minimum since I still have yet to see it, though I must point out that a Best Picture nominee includes the line “I’m not changing his life, he’s changing mine.” Really? And isn’t that awfully close to the line from the retard/football movie “Radio?” “We’re not teaching Radio. Radio is teaching all of us.” Ok, Academy voters. You made your bed. Now sleep in it.
This new rule is designed to get people to tune in to the awards show to see the chance of a blockbuster film winning a big award. Also to help increase the success and box office receipts of more films. But let’s face it. AVATAR didn’t need any help and it was going to be nominated even if there were only five slots to spare. A few months ago, I thought that UP IN THE AIR was a lock to win Best Picture. It had the buzz of being the hit of the Toronto Film Fest, was topping many top ten lists, and was an upbeat film that was topical regarding our current economic times. But even with a fantastic cast, this film didn’t attract the kind of word of mouth buzz with the public that films like “Juno” and “Slumdog Millionaire” have in the past. Too bad. It’s a very nice film, but it certainly isn’t the best film of the year.
I’m overjoyed that a Pixar film finally got nominated for Best Picture, but while I think a film like “Wall-E” could have won if it had been nominated last year, UP just doesn’t have that chance this year. My favorite film of the year, INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS, has a decent shot of being a dark horse as it has a big fan base, but its reward will probably be for CHRISTOPH WALTZ and perhaps a screenwriting award for QUENTIN TARANTINO. I love that the brilliant little sci-fi indie DISTRICT 9 was nominated, but it doesn’t have a chance when put up against the sci-fi monster that is AVATAR.
AVATAR is an unprecedented achievement. One that the Academy could easily reward for its success and mass appeal. I suppose I wouldn’t be too upset if it won, but I think THE HURT LOCKER has a real chance of pulling it out, after a slough of Awards it received in the last few months. Of course The Academy Awards are not the BAFTA’s. Big business might prevail.
I can’t say I’m really on the edge of my seat to find out what happens on Sunday night. I’m more curious to see how next year’s awards play out. Will the ten nominee system stay in place? Probably. Will 2010 be such an amazing year that it will actually be difficult to pick only ten films to fill the category, unlike this year when it seemed like they were stretching to find even ten great films? I don’t know. But today I saw Roman Polanski’s “The Ghostwriter.” Best film I’ve seen so far this year. Not a difficult feat considering the crap we’ve gotten in the last few months, but I hope it’s a sign of what’s to come. I want an unbelievable year. So let’s get started. Enjoy the Oscars, friends. Give me a call before showing up. My couch is only so big.
-Johnny Pomatto
